When Trump loses in November, will there be another January 6 ? No, will not happen.

I continue to hear comments that Trump’s followers would be unlikely to take to the streets in protest following a guilty verdict in the New York election interference trial, and probably not even when  he loses in November. Let’s think about why there will be no insurrection —  neither after he is convicted nor after he loses in November.

First, the trial. Trump has been complaining about the absence of protestors outside the courthouse. Naturally, he blames everyone but himself. The Circus Trump Wanted Outside His Trial Hasn’t Arrived:

Mr. Trump sought to cast the poor turnout as more evidence of a plot against him. In a post at 8:50 a.m., he implied that would-be MAGA protesters were being discriminated against for political reasons.

The police aren’t scaring his “supporters” away. Trump supporters simply are not there.  They don’t have the energy. Or the time. Or whatever. But MAGAts are not heeding the call. Now, when the case goes to the jury, there’s no way to know in advance when the verdict will come in, so it’s not likely the faithful will gather and stay in front of the courthouse (which isn’t a big space anyway) waiting to see if the jury and the judge crucify their savior. It is possible the Trump machine may organize groups around the country to demonstrate over the verdict either way, but the record of Trump rallies hasn’t been encouraging (eg, Donald Trump’s Crowd Size Raises Questions — about the Saturday rally in NJ). So, we may see some scattered noise-makers, but I predict nothing substantial or seriously disruptive.

An additional reason I say this is that the January 6th rioters are now paying the price for that disruption, and seeing other people get arrested, tried, convicted, and sent to prison for doing what they did tends to cause others who want to do the same thing to hesitate before doing so.

This is why I also think that when (I say, when) the would-be Mussolini loses in November, there will be at most scattered demonstrations and disruptions, but no army of the disaffected marching on Washington in The Name of the Lord Trump. A rational president is in charge and he is not about to play the same games with the police and DOD and the National Guard that the previous tenant of the White House indulged in. Any attempt to disrupt the workings of government this time will be dealt with as it deserves. This administration is not only aware of the possibility, it is making plans to protect the seat of democracy from violence.

This will not necessarily dissuade the truly crazy, so we are likely to see small protests, some destruction, and some people will be hurt and some may be killed. Let us hope not. But I predict that there will not be an insurrection similar to the last one.