I watched 20 minutes of the “debate” Thursday night and, as with many Democrats, I have spent the last few days very concerned about our nation.
Now, it’s time to get out of the blue funk and get to work with a redoubled effort to save this nation.
My support for Joe and Kamala is unwavering – period.
I have been a Democrat since the early 1950’s, and I don’t intend to let up now. And I’m asking each one of you to redouble your efforts – and get involved, talk to your friends, family, colleagues, and do everything you can between now and November. YOU will make the difference.
Below is information passed to me from a family member who is inside the Biden-Harris campaign that I think will be helpful to understanding the numbers and the issues, as well as some thoughts from some senior campaign people.
“Tremendous progress can be made if we persevere through difficult challenges.”
. . . Jimmy Carter
“These are the times that try men’s souls: the summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country.”
. . . Thomas Paine, 1776
Here’s what I know and what guides me every day: Democracy is not guaranteed – every generation must protect it, defend it, and fight for it.
This is my fight.
This is Joe’s fight.
This is OUR fight.
So I’m asking you NOW – make it your fight. This is the time.
America’s greatness is tied to her future – Trump is tying it to our past. From the founders, to the suffragettes, to the civil rights movement, the common theme is hope. And that hope for a better country for all is what should guide us in this campaign. Whether it was the New Deal, the Great Society, or Biden’s American Rescue Plan, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, Chips and Science Act, and the PACT Act – it’s Democrats who have always worked to protect and provide for this country. Since Reagan, there have been 51 millions jobs created – 49 million of those under Democrats.
The main question I’ve received is about Thursday night. Did he have a bad night? Yes. Have any of the issues in the campaign changed? No.
Trump presents a clear and present danger to this country – and we have to work our asses off to elect Joe and Kamala.
Here is what’s coming up in the next few weeks that we need to focus on:
– Immunity ruling from SCOTUS and this could potentially spur action in the DC/January 6th case.
– On July 11
o Trump sentencing in NY case
o Biden will be hosting all of the NATO leaders at a convening in DC
o This will be a huge opportunity to show a split screen of a convicted felon vs the leader of the free world hosting all of the NATO leaders to further protect democracy around the world and strengthen our foreign policy/alliances. And I would expect that many of those leaders will be giving interviews supporting Biden’s reelection.
– RNC Convention
o During their convention, we will be rolling out Republicans for Biden.
o Last week we saw former US Representative Adam Kinzinger come out publicly for Biden, and he will continue to travel and speak to his support for Biden and the danger of Trump.
o While I don’t have a list of who will be the leaders of the Republicans for Biden, I suspect it will be some heavy hitters. And if I were a betting person, I might also put some money on some of the generals who Trump has been lying about to possibly come out publicly as well.
– Blue Wall Travelling
o All surrogates will be on the road, especially in the blue wall states.
o This will include many of the Democratic governors.
Information we received at meetings on Thursday that I think is interesting:
– Reproductive rights panel
o Polling shows voters are NOT done voting on the issue; we will define it as a choice.
o There is the message, the messaging/messengers, and the medium. We will have real voices from people in states with the bans – we have already had some of them do ads to show what happened in their state and can happen other places.
– Path to 270
o There are 7 states that are currently tied, and we need to win 3 or 4 of them.
o Our targets are those we need to reengage and then expanding.
- The biggest group to reach is reengagement folks.
- These are people who trust people they already know.
- They trust YOU – and need to hear from YOU. Make it personal.
o Of the 7 million votes we won by last time, it was the 45k in GA, WI, and AZ that won the election.
Points that came out immediately from Thursday night that I think are really important:
– Arizona – Latino focus groups
o Went heavily for Biden during/after the debate
o Voters responded poorly to Trump; used words like “liar”, “mean”, and said things like “can’t do another 4 years with him”
o AZ is very important in the senate races, and the Latino vote is part of that math, so this is positive for us.
– Real time polling on key issues (abortion, January 6th, others) – voters moved in our favor and their answers followed our core messaging
Notes from the Biden-Harris campaign on Saturday:
– Team Biden-Harris raised more than $27 million between debate day and Friday evening. Debate night saw three record-breaking hours for grassroots fundraising – including the hour following the debate which was the best one hour of grassroots fundraising since launch.
– Across the battlegrounds, our state campaigns have received an influx of volunteer enthusiasm and support, which we are channeling into voter outreach:
o More than three times as many people applied to work on the campaign in the 24 hours following the debate than apply on an average day.
o Post-debate, across the battlegrounds, our rate of volunteer signups was more than three times as much as an average day.
o In North Carolina, we had our largest event of the campaign on Friday, with thousands of people turning out to hear the president give strong and forceful remarks.
– Flash polls from CNN, 538, SurveyUSA, Morning Consult, and Data for Progress show what we expected: The debate did not change the horse race. This mirrors what the campaign’s internal post-debate polling showed: The president maintained his support among his 2020 voters and voters’ opinions were not changed.
o CNN: “An 81% majority of registered voters who watched the debate say it had no effect on their choice for president, with another 14% saying that it made them reconsider but didn’t change their mind. Just 5% say it changed their minds about whom to vote for.”
o 538: “The face-off doesn’t seem to have caused many people to reconsider their vote.”
o SurveyUSA: Continues to show a tight race between President Biden and Donald Trump, consistent with public polling averages pre-debate.
o Morning Consult: A new large-sample, independent poll has President Biden gaining 1 point post-debate, now leading 45-44.
o Data for Progress: Vote choice between Trump and Biden remains largely unchanged, and Biden continues to run ahead of other Democrats in a Trump matchup.
o Geoff Garin of Hart Research: “I am finishing my second battleground state poll post-debate and both surveys show the same thing: the debate had no effect on the vote choice. The election was extremely close and competitive before the debate, and it is still extremely close and competitive today.”
– Following the debate, our internal dials showed President Biden led Trump on key measures of being presidential, speaking to the issues that matter, and being likable by more than 20 points. Dials showed that independent voters were turned off by Trump’s personal attacks, and had deep negative feelings when Trump talked about January 6, his support for Putin, and refusing to lay out his vision for America. Our internal poll confirmed the dials: Trump’s performance left independent voters feeling less confident about his position on reproductive rights and abortion, respect for the Constitution and rule of law, and truthfulness.
– Debate dials conducted by outside groups in Phoenix, Arizona largely confirm what we saw from internal dials. A few key takeaways:
o “Overall, voters say that the debate for the most part didn’t change their overall outlook of either candidate.”
o “Trump’s refusal to answer questions in a straightforward manner and his exaggerated boasting fed into perceptions that he cares more about himself than solving peoples’ issues.”
o “Biden’s strongest moments were on matters of policy substance, and voters thought he better addressed their concerns on the issues than did Trump.”
Bottom line: Our team knows a thing or two about putting our heads down and doing the work to win hard races. This will be a very close election. It was always going to be. It will be won by breaking through and talking to voters every single day, making our case to them about just how high the stakes are and who is fighting for them. That’s what our campaign has been planning for. It’s the relentless work we’re doing on the ground to get our winning message out that makes us confident President Biden will win this race and beat Donald Trump.