Rural voters are more likely to vote for Donald Trump. In fact, it’s what propelled him to the White House in 2016. Yet Americans voting for the presidential candidate who proposes an all-out trade war with China—our biggest agricultural export—are voting against their economic interests.
White rural voters are key to Trump taking back the White House. However, economists warn that a tariff trade war would worsen inflation and economic growth.
That hasn’t stopped Trump from doubling down on his favored fix-all economic proposal.
“Other countries that make us pay a tax to do business with them will be charged the same tax when they send their product into the United States. It will be called the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act,” Trump said at a Pennsylvania rally in August. “So, if China or any other country charges us a 100% or 200% tariff or tax, we will then charge them 100% or 200%.”
Lest we forget, farmers don’t just grow food for America, they also export it and employ workers. A trade war would increase production costs, as well as the cost of their labor and goods—food. Economists refer to this as retaliatory tariffs. These tariffs would respond to U.S. implementations and could amount to $200 billion in a “tit-for-tat trade war,” according to the economic think tank American Action Forum. And that impact U.S. households.
“The escalation of trade restrictions would presumably result in large-scale tax increases on consumers throughout the world, reducing global output, stunting economic growth, and eroding job market stability,” wrote AAF data analyst Jacob Jensen.
According to economists, tariffs are likely to negatively impact rural Americans farm workers, further pricing them out of production in an already strained economic climate, where consumer food costs have risen 28% in five years.
At a rally in Michigan on Tuesday, Trump spoke about how American farmers are being “decimated” by the Biden-Harris administration’s economic policies. “We allow a lot of farm product into our country,” he said. “We’re not going to allow so much.”
Immigrants make up more than half of all U.S. agricultural workers. Trump’s anti-immigration, pro-deportation rhetoric are key elements of his political brand. Rural voters, who rely heavily on agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), would suffer the most, losing their labor force and making production more expensive, if not unprofitable.
Tariffs worsen inflation by creating high consumer prices, hindering economic growth, and isolating the U.S. from the global market. This poses a bad idea for everyone, but especially for rural voters, who tend to lean right and are enthralled by Trump’s bombastic brand.