In 1969, Richard Nixon famously coined the term “The Silent Majority” during a pivotal moment in American history. At the height of the Vietnam War and amidst widespread protests, Nixon sought to rally what he believed was a vast, quiet swath of Americans who supported “traditional” values, “law and order”, and the war effort, but had grown tired of the loud, disruptive activism dominating the headlines. This strategy paid off in the 1968 election, helping Nixon win the presidency by appealing to this overlooked demographic, which he argued was tired of the chaos and eager for stability. The Silent Majority represented a backlash to the radical social changes and cultural upheaval of the time, ultimately propelling Nixon to victory over a deeply divided Democratic Party.
Polling had underestimated the number of people who saw Nixon as a stabilizing force and were motivated to pull the lever for him. I genuinely believe this is where we are today. People are sick and tired of the divisiveness and anger of the MAGA movement—the constant barrage of conspiracy theories, juvenile personal attacks, culture war bigotries, and efforts to undermine our democratic institutions. And other than a rump of delusional dead-enders, the large majority of Americans are fully aware that Trump is a vile, corrupt, and incoherent felon utterly unworthy of coming within a mile of the Oval Office.
The state of the two parties today also mirror that 1968 race. The Democrats back then were fractured and internally hostile, while the GOP was coalescing. Now we’re seeing the Democratic party more unified than it’s been, perhaps in decades, while the Republican party is in disarray and their candidate in full melt-down mode. More than that, the Democrats are energized, optimistic, and even joyful in a way I’ve never seen. This is an inherently attractive dynamic that can pull in people who might be on the fence or typically disengaged from politics. My point here is that the Dems are far more attractive now than the GOP was back in ‘68.
Yes, polling shows a close race. I think the polls are wrong (in terms of percentages—the trends are probably more accurate). I think there is a new Silent Majority in this country who are ready to move beyond the chaos, hostility, and division. They are young adults who don’t answer pollsters. They are suburban and rural wives who don’t want to make waves by coming out in support of Democrats but who know how important it is to elect them. It is Black and Latino voters who had tuned out over the last couple of years but who will come home in big numbers. It is disaffected Republicans who can’t stand Trump (a lot of whom voted for Nikki Haley in the primary) and who recognize the dangers of Project 2025. I strongly suspect that polling is not capturing these voters.
This is not just wishful thinking or naive “unskewing”. Over the last two years, we’ve seen polling consistently miss outcomes that favor Democrats and liberalism. The last example is just a few days ago in Wisconsin when the GOP tried to slip in two constitutional amendments to disempower the Democratic governor in a petty act of revenge—polling had those amendments passing by 3-10 points and they ended up going down to defeat, one 57-43 and the other 58-42. There are dozens of examples like this, and almost none going the other way.
But one could argue this doesn’t apply when Trump is on the ballot. Except we know it does. In the 2024 primaries, Trump underperformed his polling in 8 out of 10 states. In Tennessee, Trump underperformed by 11.3 points relative to the final polling average, in Michigan he missed by 15.3 points, and in Virginia he missed by a whopping 20.8 points. True, primary polling isn’t the same as for the general election, so I’m not arguing this is an apples to apples comparison. But it does illustrate that the way pollsters gathered and interpreted data for Trump significantly overestimated his chances. I’ve seen nothing to indicate they’ve corrected for this in recent weeks.
I know that predicting a Democratic win evokes the horror of 2016 and the hand-wringing mantra, “Don’t get complacent!” (nevermind that 2024 is almost nothing like 2016). The win I’m predicting is based entirely on the expectation of hard work, a large volunteer army, smart strategy, flush campaign coffers, and high energy. And so far, this expectation is bearing out in ways far beyond my wildest dreams. As far as I can see, Democrats are the polar opposite of complacent right now.
I’m confident that the people I cannot see—because they are not going to rallies or answering polls—is the growing silent majority of Americans who are ready to turn the page. They are disgusted by Trump/Vance and energized by Harris/Walz.
Not only will Harris-Walz win in Nov, they will be re-elected in 2028 while Trump will be forgotten by Jan 1, 2025, and the GOP will fade to nothing.