Like most good Americans, I was shocked and appalled by the events of January 6, 2021. For the next two years I lived with a deep anxiety, wondering if my country was truly headed towards another civil war or at least another attempted coup. To believe this, I’d want to be shown the Trump supporters still not in prison who have any inclinations toward violence. So far we haven’t seen any.
Yeah, exactly. If Trump is removed from the ballot they’ll be rioting in the streets! Just like there was when he was indicted! And when he was indicted the second time! And the third time! And the fourth time! And when he lost the civil suit filed by E. Jean Carroll! And when she wins her second lawsuit, oh boy, you all better lock your doors! Because this time we’re going to see what an angry mob can really do!
Maybe his followers are spending so much time traveling back and forth between different court venues that they keep forgetting when and where they’re supposed to riot.
Basically, you need leadership to start a revolution. Not just inspiration, but planning and coordination –what military types call “command and control”. That requires leaders to give explicit orders and see that they’re carried out, which in turn requires courage, because anyone who issues explicit orders to commit violence is sticking their neck in the noose. And Trump’s modus operandi is, as we’ve all learned, to avoid explicit orders for illegal behavior. Every call for action is designed to preserve plausible deniability. That’s a big, big weakness.
The most important thing to remember about January 6 was that it failed, and it failed despite two huge Trump advantages. First, of course, was the element of surprise. No one actually believed that something like that could occur – even many of Trump’s own staff were shocked. Second, as sitting president, he got to draw up the game plan for both sides. He saw to it that the valiant Capitol police force were left without backup while facing tens of thousands of rabid MAGAts. So how did that vast mob fail?
They failed because most of them didn’t understand their mission.
Tucker Carlson and most of the right-wing media have been trying for the past three years to convince America that we didn’t see what we saw that day. Those weren’t rioters, they were just peaceful protesters denouncing what they thought was a stolen election. The crazy thing is, that picture is kind of true! A lot of those idiots just stood around outside waving signs and flags, and many of the ones who went inside just took selfies in the Capitol rotunda (and were later allowed to plead guilty to misdemeanors). They actually thought they were there to simply protest. They didn’t comprehend that their assignment was to shoot Nancy Pelosi and defenestrate Chuck Schumer. Their job was, yes, to hang Mike Pence.
Because Trump communicates everything elliptically, a lot of his instructions go over the head of stupid people. Which is to say, his followers.
Sure, some of those folks got it – the militia types such as the Proud Boys and the Three Percenters understood that they were there to commit extreme violence. But even then, their actions were relatively uncoordinated. The White House (or Trump’s co-conspirators in Congress) surely had access to detailed plans of the building, which could have been provided to the insurrectionists, but I haven’t heard any such allegations. If the bad guys really knew their way around the building things could have been much, much worse. But that would have risked sacrificing plausible deniability.
Today, all Trump’s advantages are gone. No more element of surprise, certainly. Any pro-Trump protest is met with an overwhelming police/national guard presence (and he doesn’t get to design the other team’s game plan any more). His most violent followers, and those with the leadership skills to organize something effective, are either in prison, awaiting trial, or fugitives. (And it’s his own fault, because he could have issued a blanket pardon on his way out of town! The desire to preserve plausible deniability bites him in the ass again!)
Plus, the MAGA crowd have so thoroughly embraced conspiracy theories (promoted, of course, by right-wing media) that anyone who attempts to organize another insurrection will be immediately labeled an FBI plant. That’s why all recent pro-Trump protests have been so sparsely attended: everyone assumes they’re a trap. Trump’s not going to issue an explicit call for violence, and the rank-and-file are too paranoid to coordinate with each other.
So who else is going to start something? Republican politicians? Some red-state governor like Ron DeSantis might have the power base to create trouble, but why do it on Trump’s behalf? They might have to kiss his ass in public today, but they’re all waiting for the moment he’s gone and they can take his place. Today’s GOP isn’t about ideology; they’re all motivated by personal ambition. There’s no incentive for any Republican pol to take a big risk for him – who wants to be the next Rudy Guliani?
I’d like to say that Trump won’t cause any more violence, but we all know that’s wishful thinking. There are plenty of nut jobs with guns in America,and Trump will continuing doing his best to motivate them. But a few crackpots with AR-15s isn’t a revolution. For the past year, Trump has been practically screaming, in his elliptical, gangsteresque way, for a mob to show up and kill Fani Willis or Judge Chaykin or Jack Smith. So far all we’ve seen are a bunch of threatening phone calls. Disturbing if you receive one, but overall pretty chickenshit.
It’s time we all relaxed and realized that the angry MAGA-mob is a chimera. They’re not coming, no matter what happens to their dear leader.