On Saturday night, America’s most prominent conservative love-in, the Conservative Policy Action Conference (CPAC), closed with an apocalyptic message. Dystopian nightmares replaced the sunny optimism of “Morning in America” as Trump lumbered through a two-hour long, policy-light invective before a smaller-than-hoped-for crowd.
As the Guardian put it, “There was no doubt that former president Trump remained the big fish at the National Harbor in Maryland – but in a smaller pond.”
This observation illustrates the ridiculous media opinion of Trump. On the one hand, the talking heads deny Trump is toast. On the other hand, they cannot ignore that Trump 2023 is a shadow of Trump 2015. The common wisdom is that Trump will win the primaries and lose the general.
That seems reasonable. A neutral analyst has to ask where Trump will find the additional votes to win a presidential election. Even if the MAGAs remain loyal, who will vote for Trump in 2024 that did not vote for him in 2020? What has Trump done in the last two years to convert a never-Trumper into a Trump enthusiast?
Neither he nor the GOP has come up with a single new policy. They continue to run on the unhinged insults that led to two disappointing elections. And that strategy will condemn the GOP to underwhelming results until they return, if they are still able, to their dismal roots.
In 1980, the election of Ronald Reagan, and his marriage of convenience with the Moral Majority, ushered in modern mainstream American conservatism. It was a political philosophy dedicated to the proposition that:
- the rich were not yet rich enough
- the Soviet Union was an existential threat
- Americans should be denied the right to marry or even have sex with the people they wanted to — unless they were straight and waited for marriage
- real Americans were white and lived in the country
- government was evil
- Christianity was the one true faith
- immigrants were paradoxically both job stealers and too lazy to get a job
- and drug addiction could be cured by just saying “no”
Today’s conservative is similar — except they believe that Russia is not so bad, that immigrants are also criminals, and the solution to drug addiction is a border wall.
The difference between a Reagan Republican and a MAGA Republican is that, back in the day, the GOP had a plan. They worked to pass legislation. They negotiated and compromised with Democrats (Tip O’Neill) when they had to. They even increased taxes when the failure of their absurd ‘deficit reduction through tax cuts’ philosophy became too obvious.
Today, the push by Republicans to enact their beliefs has taken a back seat to performative politics. In 2022, the GOP told the voters that inflation and a looming recession were crises. Yet after they clawed out a victory in the House, their energies have been dedicated to investigating Hunter Biden and slamming papa Joe for not taking a day trip to visit a train crash site.
Jim Jordan has used his leadership role to demonize the FBI, fret about the origin of COVID, and claim the Dems are gun grabbers (the GOP has been saying that since Obama in 2008 — no guns grabbed). Yet when pollsters ask voters which issues matter, gun policy is #8, the scope of the federal government #13, and COVID #18.
The economy is the #1 concern. Yet all the GOP does is complain about it without offering any solutions.
MT Greene has enthusiastically backed white nationalism and secession. Why? For the attention. She is merely gaslighting. This cracked actor has not even a pretense of a plan.
When they do have a strategy — as Rick Scott does for destroying Social Security and Medicare — they pick the wrong side in the one thing regular Republicans and Democrats agree on, leaving traditional Medicare and Social Security alone.
The GOP has one plan that bears fruit — bowdlerizing school curriculums to protect white kids’ feelings and punish children for being outside the bigender/heterosexual norm. Their strategy helped flip the Virginia governorship and elevated the leading non-Trump candidate, Ron DeSantis.
Not that DeSantis will cure what ails them. Never-Trumpers have promoted the Florida Governor as “Trump without the drama”. The problem is that he is just that. The base needs theatrics in their candidates. Jeb Bush’s candidacy collapsed in 2016, not because he had no ideas, but because he was dull.
Republicans paid attention, beat their chests, and sacrificed ideas on the altar of outrage. It makes them look good at CPAC, but non-MAGA Americans — who are the vast majority — are tired of it. And there seem to be more non-MAGAs every year.
Like a small child, the base wants fairy stories — entertainment without effort. There is little difference between today’s GOP, professional wrestling, and superhero movies. All are enjoyable — if you like that sort of thing — but it is no way to run a railroad.